15 Jul · 10:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaHigh · Clear Favorite
EA
AG
🎾Alonso/Goñi
ELO 1531
FormLWLLW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Alonso/Goñi
LC
LH
🎾Capra/Hernandez
ELO 1508
FormWLW
61%
39%
Fair odds · Alonso/Goñi
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Alonso/Goñi covers
Model 70%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~26 games
2-0
33%
2-1
28%
1-2
21%
0-2
18%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.