16 Jul · 13:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaElite · Strong Favorite
JG
LB
🎾Garrido/Bergamini
ELO 1603
FormWWWWW
87%Win chancemodel fair 1.15Stupaczuk/Yanguas
FS
MY
🎾Stupaczuk/Yanguas
ELO 1702
FormWLWWL
13%
87%
Fair odds · Stupaczuk/Yanguas
Model 87% · 1.15vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Stupaczuk/Yanguas covers
Model 72%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 60%Total ~25 games
0-2
60%
1-2
27%
2-1
8%
2-0
5%
Elo Gap+99
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+99)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)