16 Jul · 14:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaElite · Strong Favorite
EA
AG
🎾Alonso/Goñi
ELO 1537
FormWLWLL
94%Win chancemodel fair 1.06Nieto/Sanz
JS
JN
🎾Nieto/Sanz
ELO 1684
FormWLWWL
6%
94%
Fair odds · Nieto/Sanz
Model 94% · 1.06vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Nieto/Sanz covers
Model 72%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 73%Total ~24 games
0-2
73%
1-2
21%
2-1
4%
2-0
2%
Elo Gap+147
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+147)