29 Jul · 13:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel PretoriaLow · Slight Edge
AA
JJ
🎾Jimenez/Arroyo
ELO 1574
FormWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jimenez/Arroyo
AF
NV
🎾Fernandez/Vilariño
ELO 1547
FormW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jimenez/Arroyo
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Jimenez/Arroyo covers
Model 31%vsMarket 49%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 28%Total ~26 games
2-0
28%
2-1
26%
1-2
23%
0-2
22%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.