4 Aug · 11:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel LondonMedium · Model Lean
GA
TL
🎾Alfonso/Libaak
ELO 1555
FormLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Alfonso/Libaak
AF
GR
🎾Fernandez/Rubio
ELO 1517
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Alfonso/Libaak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Alfonso/Libaak covers
Model 36%vsMarket 44%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 29%Total ~26 games
2-0
29%
2-1
27%
1-2
23%
0-2
21%
Elo Gap+38
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.