4 Aug · 18:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel LondonMedium · Model Lean
FM
MQ
🎾Quilez/Mouriño
ELO 1571
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Herrera/Pons
MH
AP
🎾Herrera/Pons
ELO 1601
FormLWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Herrera/Pons
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Herrera/Pons covers
Model 47%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 28%Total ~26 games
0-2
28%
1-2
26%
2-1
23%
2-0
22%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.