5 Aug · 12:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel London. WomenMedium · Model Lean
AR
AC
🎾Rodero/Cañellas
ELO 1423
FormLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sirvent/Jensen
EJ
CS
🎾Sirvent/Jensen
ELO 1457
FormL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sirvent/Jensen
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 86% · 1.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -5.5 · Sirvent/Jensen covers
Model 28%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 5.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 29%Total ~26 games
0-2
29%
1-2
27%
2-1
23%
2-0
22%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.