31 Aug · 11:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MadridElite · Strong Favorite
PH
GC
🎾Hernandez/Collado
ELO 1612
FormLLWLL
78%Win chancemodel fair 1.28Libaak/Alfonso
GA
TL
🎾Libaak/Alfonso
ELO 1809
FormWWWWW
22%
78%
Fair odds · Libaak/Alfonso
Model 78% · 1.28vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -1.5 · Libaak/Alfonso covers
Model 81%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 1.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~26 games
0-2
48%
1-2
29%
2-1
13%
2-0
9%
Elo Gap+197
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+197)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)