2 Sept · 10:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MadridLow · Coin Flip
FL
FB
🎾Lopez/Bianco
ELO 1675
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lopez/Bianco
AA
JJ
🎾Arroyo/Jimenez
ELO 1675
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lopez/Bianco
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 29% · 3.40· vig 5%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Lopez/Bianco covers
Model 41%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 25%Total ~26 games
2-0
25%
2-1
25%
1-2
25%
0-2
25%
Elo Gap+0
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.