2 Sept · 18:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MadridLow · Coin Flip
JG
LB
🎾Garrido/Bergamini
ELO 1828
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Alfonso/Libaak
GA
TL
🎾Alfonso/Libaak
ELO 1830
FormWWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Alfonso/Libaak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Alfonso/Libaak covers
Model 45%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 25%Total ~26 games
0-2
25%
1-2
25%
2-1
25%
2-0
25%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.