4 Sept · 09:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MadridMedium · Model Lean
AA
JJ
🎾Jimenez/Arroyo
ELO 1761
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jofre/Bautista
IJ
JB
🎾Jofre/Bautista
ELO 1794
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Jofre/Bautista
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -0.5 · Jofre/Bautista covers
Model 49%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 0.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 29%Total ~26 games
0-2
29%
1-2
27%
2-1
23%
2-0
22%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.