7 Sept · 16:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel ParisElite · Strong Favorite
RV
DS
🎾Valenzuela/Santigosa
ELO 1467
FormL
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Mouriño/Quilez
FM
MQ
🎾Mouriño/Quilez
ELO 1638
FormLWLWW
25%
75%
Fair odds · Mouriño/Quilez
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -1.5 · Mouriño/Quilez covers
Model 81%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 1.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~26 games
0-2
45%
1-2
30%
2-1
14%
2-0
11%
Elo Gap+171
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+171)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)