8 Sept · 12:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel Paris. WomenLow · Slight Edge
AG
AD
🎾Gracia/Dominguez
ELO 1455
FormLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gracia/Dominguez
SP
AP
🎾Perez/Perez
ELO 1443
FormLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gracia/Dominguez
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Gracia/Dominguez covers
Model 39%vsMarket 46%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 26%Total ~26 games
2-0
26%
2-1
26%
1-2
24%
0-2
24%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.