6 Oct · 15:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel DusseldorfElite · Strong Favorite
EA
AG
🎾Alonso/Goñi
ELO 1775
FormLLWLW
84%Win chancemodel fair 1.19Nenno/Navarro
MN
FN
🎾Nenno/Navarro
ELO 2031
FormLWLWW
16%
84%
Fair odds · Nenno/Navarro
Model 84% · 1.19vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 5%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Nenno/Navarro covers
Model 71%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 55%Total ~25 games
0-2
55%
1-2
28%
2-1
10%
2-0
7%
Elo Gap+256
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+256)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)