9 Oct · 20:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel DusseldorfLow · Slight Edge
JS
FS
🎾Stupaczuk/Sanz
ELO 2034
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nenno/Navarro
MN
FN
🎾Nenno/Navarro
ELO 2057
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Nenno/Navarro
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -0.5 · Nenno/Navarro covers
Model 47%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 0.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 28%Total ~26 games
0-2
28%
1-2
26%
2-1
24%
2-0
23%
Elo Gap+23
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.