12 Oct · 17:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanElite · Strong Favorite
MH
AP
🎾Herrera/Pons
ELO 1491
FormLLLLW
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Gil/Valenzuela
RV
FG
🎾Gil/Valenzuela
ELO 1669
FormWLWWW
24%
76%
Fair odds · Gil/Valenzuela
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -1.5 · Gil/Valenzuela covers
Model 81%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 1.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~26 games
0-2
46%
1-2
30%
2-1
14%
2-0
10%
Elo Gap+178
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+178)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)