14 Oct · 09:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanMedium · Model Lean
CG
DG
🎾Guichard/Geens
ELO 1814
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Guichard/Geens
EA
AG
🎾Goñi/Alonso
ELO 1761
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Guichard/Geens
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 17% · 5.89· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Guichard/Geens covers
Model 35%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~26 games
2-0
31%
2-1
27%
1-2
22%
0-2
20%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)