13 Oct · 11:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanElite · Strong Favorite
PH
MC
🎾Hernandez/Castaño
ELO 1688
FormWLWLW
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Hernandez/Castaño
LB
JB
🎾Bergamini/Bautista
ELO 1545
FormLLWW
71%
29%
Fair odds · Hernandez/Castaño
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 38% · 2.65· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Hernandez/Castaño covers
Model 78%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~26 games
2-0
42%
2-1
30%
1-2
16%
0-2
12%
Elo Gap+143
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+143)