14 Oct · 09:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanElite · Strong Favorite
MA
JT
🎾Arce/Tello
ELO 1920
FormLWWLW
81%Win chancemodel fair 1.23Arce/Tello
RV
FG
🎾Gil/Valenzuela
ELO 1692
FormWWLWW
81%
19%
Fair odds · Arce/Tello
Model 81% · 1.23vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Arce/Tello covers
Model 62%vsMarket 49%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~25 games
2-0
52%
2-1
29%
1-2
11%
0-2
8%
Elo Gap+228
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+228)