15 Oct · 13:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanElite · Strong Favorite
MY
PL
🎾Yanguas/Lijo
ELO 1548
FormW
97%Win chancemodel fair 1.03Libaak/Alfonso
GA
TL
🎾Libaak/Alfonso
ELO 2070
FormWLWWL
3%
97%
Fair odds · Libaak/Alfonso
Model 97% · 1.03vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -1.5 · Libaak/Alfonso covers
Model 81%vsMarket 49%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 1.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 79%Total ~23 games
0-2
79%
1-2
18%
2-1
2%
2-0
1%
Elo Gap+522
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+522)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)