17 Oct · 19:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MilanElite · Strong Favorite
LA
JL
🎾Augsburger/Lebron
ELO 2136
FormWWWLW
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Galan/Chingotto
FC
AG
🎾Galan/Chingotto
ELO 2316
FormWWWLW
24%
76%
⚡ Cover lean · Galan/Chingotto
Fair odds · Galan/Chingotto
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Galan/Chingotto covers
Model 71%vsMarket 46%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~26 games
0-2
46%
1-2
30%
2-1
14%
2-0
10%
Elo Gap+180
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+180)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)