26 Jun · 12:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1567
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Nitchenko
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1612
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (47)
Fair odds · Nitchenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H16-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-7)