26 Jun · 11:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1448
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Schmidtmayer
JB
🇺🇦Jan Blazek
ELO 1439
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Blazek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.