26 Jun · 08:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1612
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nitchenko
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1583
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Nitchenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H6-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.