26 Jun · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1567
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derevianko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Strutinskiy
ELO 1560
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Strutinskiy rarely covers set handicap as underdog 35% (20)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H35-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.