26 Jun · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1497
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polak
FH
🇺🇦Filip Husek
ELO 1466
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.