26 Jun · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1477
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
LK
🇺🇦Lukas Krutina
ELO 1451
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Krutina goes over total as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+26
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.