26 Jun · 14:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii S Marushchak
ELO 1503
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Plakushchyi
PP
🇺🇦Pavel Plakushchyi
ELO 1506
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Plakushchyi
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.