26 Jun · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1511
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1565
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
🌟Kovshun stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+54
H2H9-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)