26 Jun · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1567
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1583
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (47)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H52-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.