26 Jun · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1511
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kolesnykov
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1522
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Kovshun stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Kolesnykov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.