26 Jun · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ND
🇺🇦Nazar Danyliuk
ELO 1776
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Danyliuk
BK
🇺🇦Bohdan Kohut
ELO 1690
FormWWLLW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kohut
Fair odds · Danyliuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~82 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H62-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (62-25)