27 Jun · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IB
🇺🇦Ihor Burak
ELO 1434
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Burak
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1425
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Burak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.