27 Jun · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇺🇦Andrii Fastov
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Fastov
DA
🇺🇦Denis Aldayev
ELO 1365
FormLWLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Fastov
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
16%
Elo Gap+75
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)