27 Jun · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇺🇦Jan Pina
ELO 1520
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pina
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1493
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Abraham stays under total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Pina
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.