27 Jun · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1500
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Botka
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1493
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Abraham stays under total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Botka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.