27 Jun · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1524
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kocvara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1500
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Kocvara
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+24
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.