27 Jun · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kovalenko
ELO 1438
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kovalenko
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tkalich
ELO 1411
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Kovalenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.