27 Jun · 07:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1561
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Maltsev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1571
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+10
H2H16-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.