27 Jun · 06:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1411
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1427
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Novakov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H15-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.