27 Jun · 15:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇺🇦Karel Jirousek
ELO 1476
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dvoracek
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1514
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Jirousek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Dvoracek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+38
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.