27 Jun · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AT
🇺🇦Alexander Tkachenko
ELO 1540
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bondarchuk
OB
🇺🇦Oleksandr Bondarchuk
ELO 1555
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Bondarchuk goes over total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Bondarchuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H15-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.