27 Jun · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1500
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fencl
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1531
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Fencl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.