27 Jun · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1546
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Svitac
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1481
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)