28 Jun · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1665
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Aristarkhov
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Syksa
ELO 1590
FormLWWWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Aristarkhov
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
16%
Elo Gap+75
H2H15-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-12)