28 Jun · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1471
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Hura
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1469
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Hura
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+2
H2H19-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.