28 Jun · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1665
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lushchyk
AL
🇺🇦Andrii Lushchyk
ELO 1716
FormWLLLL
45%
55%
🌟Aristarkhov covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Lushchyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H36-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-26)