28 Jun · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1471
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mitla
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kalenyk
ELO 1434
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H17-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.