28 Jun · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VT
🇺🇦Volodymyr Tatarnykov
ELO 1618
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Aristarkhov
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1665
FormLWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Aristarkhov
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H52-37
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (52-37)