28 Jun · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1563
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rak
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1538
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Rak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (29)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+25
H2H37-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.